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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.25 16:41l 551 Lines 16532 Bytes #143 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUN25
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Sent: 250616/0730Z 4912@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421
WW 421 SEVERE TSTM SD WY 160050Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED WIND-PRODUCING SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO
ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECTING SEVERE GUSTS (60-85 MPH) TO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SURGES OF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF RAPID CITY SD TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PIERRE SD. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419...WW 420...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27035.
...SMITH
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420
WW 420 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 152245Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE BY THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING, AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF ALLIANCE NE TO 35 MILES WEST OF GOODLAND KS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27020.
...SMITH
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
WW 419 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 152215Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLULAR STORMS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RATON NM TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOBBS NM. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30020.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
WW 418 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 152015Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL (2-3 INCH DIAMETER), WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
60-80 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. FAVORABLE STORM INTERACTIONS COULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
HARLOWTON MT TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BAKER MT. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27020.
...THOMPSON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0421 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CDR
TO 45 SSW 2WX TO 55 ESE 4BQ.
..MARSH..06/16/25
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-021-031-033-041-047-055-063-065-071-075-081-085-093-
095-102-103-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-160340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CAMPBELL
CORSON CUSTER DEWEY
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
HUGHES JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0420 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO
45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR.
..MARSH..06/16/25
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-125-160340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON YUMA
KSC023-153-181-160340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN
NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135-
161-171-160340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0419 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CVS TO
30 W CVS TO 55 WSW CAO TO 20 WSW DHT.
..LEITMAN..06/16/25
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-037-160340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING QUAY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0418 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW COD TO
40 E LWT TO 30 SW GGW.
..MARSH..06/16/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-011-017-019-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-071-075-079-083-
085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER
DANIELS DAWSON FALLON
GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE
MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN
STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE
VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX
YELLOWSTONE
WYC033-160340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1309
MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 160330Z - 160530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MONTANA
THIS EVENING. WITH TIME, THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND VERY
BUOYANT AIRMASS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO MERGE
TOGETHER AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT PROGRESSES EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED, AND AS BUOYANT OR
GREATER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. THUS, WITH MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE
RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO MORE THAN 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PERSIST EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #418. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 06/16/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 45960400 49030398 48989986 45989987 45960400
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC JUN 16, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WYOMING...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS (SOME 75+ MPH) WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TONIGHT.
...MT TO SD/NE THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIX OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MT THIS EVENING -- FOCUSED AHEAD OF
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, THOUGH
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR A
SWATH OF SEVERE WINDS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. FOR DETAILS, REFERENCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418.
FATHER SOUTH, SEVERAL OTHER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING
EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE, WHICH WILL BOTH POSE A
RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN SD (DRIVEN BY 30-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES), WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTER IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES, RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE, AND 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (PER UNR 00Z SOUNDING). THIS
WILL FAVOR A SWATH OF SEVERE WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH) INTO TONIGHT. FOR
DETAILS, SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 420 AND 421 AND MCD 1306.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NM, POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419 AND MCD 1307 FOR DETAILS.
..WEINMAN.. 06/16/2025
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