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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.25 12:07l 117 Lines 4166 Bytes #143 (0) @ WW
BID : 5998_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-FEB25
Path: OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VK6HGR<VK2IO<VK5RSV<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250217/1030Z 5998@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON FEB 17 06:00:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON FEB 17 06:00:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON FEB 17 06:00:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON FEB 17 06:00:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC FEB 17, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY.
...DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH WILL DEPART THE EASTERN US TODAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW
TEMPORARILY SETTLING IN ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY D1 PERIOD ALONG
THE DEPARTING FRONT, HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SPARSE BEFORE
QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS A BELT OF
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW EJECTS AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, PROMOTING LEE TROUGHING AND
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
REGION, BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR INCLUSION OF
THUNDER AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 02/17/2025
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW TODAY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO, AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS. THIS WILL PROMOTE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO.
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, ERCS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND THE 50TH-75TH PERCENTILE. ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED, WITH ERCS ALSO NEAR THE
75TH PERCENTILE. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
(GUSTING LOCALLY HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE. HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
HREF SUGGESTS LONGEST DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE TIED TO
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES. AS SUCH, AN
ELEVATED WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK BUT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, FUELS IN THIS REGION ARE
BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED OR CRITICAL AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 02/17/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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