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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.25 11:19l 466 Lines 14448 Bytes #143 (0) @ WW
BID : 4402_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-JUL24
Path: OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 240715/0700Z 4402@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535
WW 535 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 150345Z - 150900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A SMALL BOWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POSE SOME
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. PEAK GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 60-70 MPH IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BOW.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF BENTON HARBOR MI TO 75 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH BEND IN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...WW 534...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28035.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534
WW 534 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 142255Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GENERALLY
1-1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE INITIALLY MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. WITH TIME, A BOWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POSE A
GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO AROUND 60-70 MPH. A
LANDSPOUT TORNADO OR TWO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF MASON CITY IA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF RACINE WI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28030.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533
WW 533 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 142200Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AROUND 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. BUT, IF ACTIVITY CAN GROW
INTO A BOWING CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING, THEN PEAK WIND SPEEDS MAY
REACH 65-75 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GLASGOW MT TO 95 MILES EAST OF MINOT ND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30025.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0535 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0535 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0534 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLI TO
40 ESE DBQ TO 35 SE RFD TO 15 WSW MKE.
..GRAMS..07/15/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...ARX...LOT...ILX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-015-031-037-043-063-073-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-123-
141-155-161-175-195-197-150440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CARROLL COOK
DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY
HENRY KANE KANKAKEE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK WHITESIDE WILL
INC089-150440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE
IAC045-163-150440-
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0533 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SDY
TO 25 E ISN TO 55 N MOT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623.
..GRAMS..07/15/24
ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-009-019-025-049-053-055-057-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-
095-101-103-150440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BOTTINEAU CAVALIER
DUNN MCHENRY MCKENZIE
MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
TOWNER WARD WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1624
MD 1624 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...
VALID 150352Z - 150515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A RENEWED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE
SOUTHEAST FROM A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE QUAD CITIES INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS THREAT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
DISCUSSION...WHILE THE PRIMARY MCV AND BOWING LINEAR CLUSTER HAS
SPREAD OVER THE CHICAGOLAND AREA, RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION
INTENSIFIED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW OVER THE QUAD
CITIES. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN
PERSIST SOUTH OF THE EARLIER OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY AND YIELD A SWATH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS SAMPLED BY THE DVN VWP, AND A LOBE OF
ENHANCED BUOYANCY EXTENDING EAST OF THE INSTABILITY MAX OVER
NORTHERN MO. WHILE MOST OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN WW
534 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, IT MAY SPREAD JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATCH WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 07/15/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41729022 41548926 41408858 40878739 40408732 40208780
40158868 40248921 40458995 41139043 41409059 41729022
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1623
MD 1623 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
ND AND NORTHEAST SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0950 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHEAST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...
VALID 150250Z - 150445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 533 BY 04-05Z.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CLUSTERS IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA APPEAR LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE CONTAINED MRMS MESH SIGNATURES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER, MAINLY WITH THE EASTERN CLUSTER AS THESE CELLS TRACK
STEADILY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THE WESTERN
CLUSTER HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
THE EASTERN ONE, NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK. DESPITE ROBUST MLCIN
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG THE MLCAPE
GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO NORTHEAST SD. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, RECENTLY TO AROUND 30 KTS PER
THE BIS VWP. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE VWP AND 00Z
BIS SOUNDING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CONSOLIDATING CLUSTERS. AS SUCH, A MIX OF BOTH SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY, EITHER OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 07/15/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48390046 48209884 46949690 45959624 45699619 44569799
46220027 46880127 47420212 47860218 48390046
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 15, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
...NORTH DAKOTA...
CONVECTION MIGRATING INTO NORTHWEST ND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS (DEPICTED WELL BY
THE 00 UTC BIS RAOB). RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED THIS
TREND WELL AND SUGGESTS THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTER/LINE IS PROBABLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ND WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE
WIND THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR 75+ MPH GUSTS. PRIOR TO
UPSCALE GROWTH, DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
ND WILL LIKELY POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT GIVEN AMPLE BUOYANCY
AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS FEATURING 50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
SEE MCD #1620 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
...MIDWEST...
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY FROM EASTERN IL INTO
CENTRAL IN IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR MCS. A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE
AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD PRIMARILY POSE
A SEVERE WIND RISK (SEE MCD #1621 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS). THE
ANTICIPATED MCS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES CENTRAL IN AND
MIGRATES INTO THE COLD POOL OF AN EARLIER MCS ACROSS OH.
..MOORE.. 07/15/2024
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